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Monday Morning Update

Posted on December 7, 2009

HI HO, HI HO, IT'S OFF TO WORK WE GO!" And even those who have been feeling grumpy about the weak labor market found something to smile about last Friday. The official Jobs Report for November was released - and the improving numbers were a big surprise to the markets.According to the Labor Department, only 11,000 jobs were lost in November, despite expectations of 125,000 jobs lost. As you can see from the chart below, this marks the least number of jobs lost in nearly two years - since December 2007. Adding to the favorable news, the Unemployment Rate improved to 10.0%, when expectations were for it to remain at the 10.2% level.While the news was good for the economy and helped Stocks improve sharply, it wasn't so favorable for Bonds...and as a result, home loan rates moved slightly higher on the news, continuing their worsening trend for the week overall.

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In other news, based on early numbers, 195 Million shoppers hit the stores and websites on Black Friday, which was up from last year's 172 Million. Cyber Monday - the online equivalent of Black Friday - also showed an increase in web shoppers, up by 6% from last year. It appears that the shopping traffic was up, but the dollars-per-shopper may be down a bit. This might be indicative of not only consumers being conservative...but also the fact that with all the deep sales taking place to incent buyers, fewer dollars may be spent to get the very same merchandise as a year ago.

Real Estate News.  The U.S. Treasury Department announced new guidelines last week designed to make short sales go more smoothly. To qualify under these new guidelines: The property must be the home owner’s principal residence; The home owner must be delinquent on their loan or close to defaulting; The loan must have been made before Jan. 1, 2009, and be for less than $729,750; and The borrowers’ total payment must exceed 31 percent of their before-tax income. Under the plan, borrowers will receive $1,500 from the government for selling homes for less than the amount of their loans. Loan-servicing companies will get $1,000 for each completed short sale. Second-lien holders can receive up to $3,000 of the sales proceeds in exchange for releasing their liens. Investors who hold the first lien can collect up to $1,000 from the government for allowing the payments. Borrowers who complete a short sale under the program must be "fully released" from future liability for the debt, according to the guidelines. Sources: Associated Press and The Wall Street Journal

The Markets.  Rates moved down to record lows in the past week. Freddie Mac announced that for the week ending December 3, 30-year fixed rates averaged 4.71%, down from 4.78% the week before. The average for 15-year fixed fell to 4.27%. A year ago 30-year fixed rates were at 5.53%.  Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes.


Forecast for the Week.  The week ahead starts out a bit sleepy in terms of economic reports, with no major releases due until Thursday when the Initial Jobless Claims report and the Balance of Trade report will both arrive.Friday will bring another shot of economic news when the Retail Sales Report - the most-timely indicator of broad consumer spending patterns - is released. We'll also get a look at the Consumer Sentiment Index for an updated snapshot of how consumers are feeling about the economy.In addition to these reports, the markets will be watching the latest round of Treasury auctions. This week's auctions include longer-term maturities such as 10-year Notes and 30-year Bonds that compete with Mortgage Backed Securities or Mortgage Bonds. So as we've been seeing of late, the auctions could cause some volatility, depending on how well they are received.Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.  Mortgage Bonds hit a high for 2009 on November 27th, but traded lower last week due to financial news and a better-than-expected Jobs Report.

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