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Monday Morning Update

Posted on March 30, 2009
 "IT REQUIRES A GREAT DEAL OF BOLDNESS AND A GREAT DEAL OF CAUTION TO MAKE A GREAT FORTUNE." Ralph Waldo Emerson. And last week's headlines contained a mix of items to inspire both boldness and caution. Here are the highlights.

Last Week in Review -  

 



















 
 
Friday's news showed that consumers are being understandably cautious with their finances, as the Personal Savings rate remained above 4% once again in February and among the highest savings levels seen in a decade. The last five years can be seen in the chart. And notice it wasn't that long ago that the US had a negative savings rate - that's right, as a nation, we regularly spent more than we made.

Meanwhile, the government continues to make bold moves to help our economy. On Monday, Treasury Secretary Geithner unveiled a plan to remove toxic assets from financial institutions by using money from the $700 Billion TARP fund. The government will help mitigate the risk by offering private investors Billions of dollars in low-interest loans to help finance the purchases. Indeed, it's a bold strategy - let's see if it pays off!

And...there is room for cautious optimism on the economy, as good news was noted on several fronts last week. The housing market received good news when both Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales came in stronger than expected. Additionally, Durable Goods Orders for February came in better than expected, showing the first increase in six months, and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (Core PCE) showed inflation is presently at tolerable levels. Plus, the US Dollar received a boost when China said it will continue to purchase US Treasuries.

Bonds were jostled around mid-week, but home loan rates ultimately ended the week very close to where they began...near historic lows.
 
Forecast for the Week -  
 
A very important week is in store, with two important announcements due toward the end of the week. As you know, the "mark-to-market" accounting issue has been discussed in this newsletter many times, and this Thursday should be a big day on that front. The Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) is set to announce their ruling on whether to modify mark-to-market, and perhaps allow cash flow analysis to determine valuation of financial assets. Not a coincidence, the strength we have seen in Stocks over the past couple of weeks has been fueled by speculation that mark-to-market will be modified, thereby helping reinvigorate the financial system of our country. I will be watching very closely to see what happens and how the markets respond.

On Friday, the Labor Department will release their Jobs Report for March. Last month's report showed that 651,000 US jobs were lost in February, while revisions for the prior two months showed that an additional 161,000 jobs were lost between December and January. Given that last week's Initial Jobless Claims report showed that the number of people collecting state unemployment benefits has reached a record high - jumping to a seasonally adjusted 5.56 Million - it will be important to see what Friday's report reveals.

Bonds are currently trading between key technical levels, with a ceiling of resistance overhead, and a floor of support underfoot. But remember: Strong economic news - such as a positive change in the "mark-to-market" situation - will likely cause Stocks to rally, and Bonds and home loan rates may worsen in response.
 
This Week's Economic Calendar -
Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.
Economic Calendar for the Week of March 30 - April 03
Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Tue. March 31
09:00
Consumer Confidence
Mar
28.0
 
25.0
Moderate
Tue. March 31
09:45
Chicago PMI
Mar
34.0
 
34.2
HIGH
Wed. April 01
08:15
ADP National Employment Report
Mar
-648K
 
-697K
HIGH
Wed. April 01
10:00
ISM Index
Mar
35.5
 
35.8
HIGH
Wed. April 01
10:30
Crude Inventories
3/27
NA
 
3300K
Moderate
Thu. April 02
08:30
Jobless Claims (Initial)
3/28
653K
 
652K
Moderate
Fri. April 03
08:30
Average Work Week
Mar
33.3
 
33.3
HIGH
Fri. April 03
08:30
Hourly Earnings
Mar
0.2%
 
0.2%
HIGH
Fri. April 03
08:30
Non-farm Payrolls
Mar
-656K
 
-651K
HIGH
Fri. April 03
08:30
Unemployment Rate
Mar
8.5%
 
8.1%
HIGH

Thank you for reading this post and feel free to post any comments.  Have a great week - Denelle

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